The Value of Binging

Ever since Netflix began producing its own series, traditional network TV executives have driven themselves to distraction over its refusal to disclose viewership numbers, or to cooperate with outside measurement companies like Nieslen. Steeped as they are in the world of ratings and advertising CPMs, TV executives have never quite groked that Netflix reckons the value of content differently.

Their obsession has sometimes led to odd spectacles, such as NBC research president Alan Wurtzel’s recent big reveal of purported Netflix “ratings” derived by the network-backed ratings system Symphony, which passively measures Netflix viewing using audio recognition technology, Manchester_by_the_Seaand which Wurtzel seemed to think proved something, although what that was was not entirely clear.

Netflix does not monetize content, as traditional media companies do. It monetizes viewers. How many people watch a particular episode of a particular series within a certain time window, therefore, really isn’t relevant to its value to Netflix. What matters is whether the people who are watching the series continue to do so, and whether that continued viewing enables Netflix’s recommendation engine to surface other series they’ll go on to view. People who continue to watch a series will, presumably, continue to pay their monthly subscription fee.

As discussed here before, Netflix’s different calculus puts a premium on producing and acquiring a broad range of programming, rather than on trying to pick shows that will have a broad appeal and therefore generate high ratings. That, in turn, is attracting a growing roster of A-list talent to Netflix, Amazon and other subscription services, drawn by the opportunity to break out of the creative constraints of ratings-driven television. Read More »

The Future of TV: Platform or Service?

Amazon on Tuesday unveiled its expanded Prime Instant Video service and it seems to be more or less as advertised. Prime subscribers will now be able to add subscriptions to other over-the-top streaming services, including Showtime, Starz and an array of niche channel for prices ranging from $3 a month to $8.99 a month for Showtime, on top of the $99 annual price ($8.25 per month) for Prime.

Amazon SDDChannels can be ordered a la carte, and subscribers can change their line ups each month. Prime subscribers can also user their Amazon credentials to log in to any of the standalone apps for their add-on channels on other streaming platform, which means Prime subscribers can watch Showtime on Apple TV despite the absence of Prime on the Apple set-top box.

For the participating networks, the expanded Prime means forgoing a direct relationship with subscribers, as Amazon will handle all billing and customer service functions, presumably in exchange for a cut of the add-on subscription fees, while gaining the leverage of Amazon’s reach and merchandising strength. Read More »

Cutting The Cord From Both Ends

Depending on whom you believe and when you start counting, cord-cutting is either slowing down or it’s accelerating.

According to a new survey by TDG, the percentage of adult broadband users who are “moderately” or “highly likely ” to cancel their pay TV service in the next six months has dropped by 20 points since last year.

“Cord cutting proclivities have held steady for several years, with approximately 7% of [adult broadband users]  pay-TV subscribers moderately or highly likely to cancel their service in the six months following the survey,” TDG director of research Michael Greeson said in a statement. “In early cable_TV_not12015, however, the number declined to 5.7%. This is the first time in five years we’ve seen significant change in these metrics.”

According to MoffettNathanson analyst Craig Moffett, however, U.S. pay-TV providers lost 357,000 subscribers in the third quarter of 2015,. That was more than twice their losses in the same quarter last year, although it was down substantially from the 605,000 they lost in the second quarter of this year.

Take your pick. Read More »

Rethinking Music: What The Industry Could Learn From Netflix

It seems fair to say that no one in the music business right now is happy with how it’s being run. As streaming, including both paid and ad-supported, has replaced CD sales as the industry’s main economic engine, the record companies have seen gross revenue decline sharply, artists and songwriters have seen their royalty income diminished, and the companies doing the streaming are losing so much money they’re losing the ability to raise more of it.

In an interesting thought experiment at the Future of Music Policy Summit in Washington this week, musician and CEO of touring van rental service Bandago Sharky Laguana, considered how one component of the industry’s current business model — how subscription revenue Music_Festivalfrom paid streaming services is ultimately allocated to individual artists — might be made more fair, if not necessarily more lucrative.

In very broad strokes, of the $10 a month most subscription services charge consumers, the streaming service keeps $3 (30 percent) and $7 (70 percent) is paid out in royalties (theoretically to artists and songwriters but in practical terms to labels and publishers who are supposed to then distribute them). The portion of that $7 accruing to any one label is calculated based on how many times songs recorded by any of the artists under contract to the label are streamed by subscribers, typically resulting in a per-stream value of a fraction of a penny. Read More »

Red Zone: Why Apple Music Should Fear YouTube Red

The most notable feature of YouTube Red is what’s missing. There is no more Music Key, the long-awaited YouTube subscription music service that has been in beta for much of the past year but never gained much traction. Nor will there be any more dedicated subscription channels, where users could get ad-free access to a single creator’s channel.

Instead, for 10 bucks a month, you’ll get ad-free access to virtually everything on the YouTube platform, including YouTube Gaming and Apple_Music_iPhoneYouTube Kids. There’s also a YouTube Music app for those who simply want to use the service for listening to music.

YouTube Red subscribers will also automatically be subscribed to Google Play Music, Google’s subscription streaming and cloud storage service that up to now had cost $10 a month on a standalone basis.

In effect, Google is now making all of its music and video content services available on both a free, ad-supported basis, and an ad-free subscription basis. (Those who are complaining that YouTube is being mean by hiding the videos of creators who have not yet signed up for the subscription program are missing the point. The point is to have two identical services with two distinct monetization strategies, and letting the consumer decide which to use.) Read More »

Competing With Free

The RIAA reported had some good news and some not-so-good news this week about the state of the music business. The good news is that while sales of CDs and permanent downloads continue to fall, revenue from paid-streaming subscriptions through the first half of 2015 was up a solid 25 percent from the first half of 2014, to $478 million. The not-so-good news is that the number of Americans actually paying for music subscriptions is growing much slower, up a sluggish 2.5 percent, or 200,000 subscribers, to 8.1 million.

Optimists noted that the first-half data did not include Apple Music, which launched June 30th, and that second-half numbers should be show faster growth. The New York Post reported this week, citing “music industry sources” that 15 million people had signed up for Apple’s paid-streaming service during the three-month free trial RIAA_paying_subscribersperiod, which ends Sept. 20th, and that roughly half those folks — 7.5 million — had not (yet) turned off the automatic payment feature the will soon turn them into paying subscribers. It wasn’t clear from the report, however, how many of those 7.5 million are in the U.S.

The optimists also note that while the number of paying subscribers was relatively flat, average revenue per subscriber was up 21.6 percent, to $118, perhaps reflecting a shift by consumers to more expensive services like Jay-Z’s Tidal.

Yet while growth in the paid-subscriber base flags, free, ad-supported streaming services like Pandora and Sirius XM continue to be hugely popular. Pandora claims to have 80 million active monthly listeners, only a tiny fraction of which pay for its ad-free tier. Due to licensing issues, Pandora is only available in the U.S., Australia and New Zealand, so the bulk of those 80 million users must be in the U.S. Read More »